A Statistical Approach to LLM Evaluation

proposes five key statistical recommendations for a more rigorous evaluation of LLM performance differences. The recommendations include: 1) using the Central Limit Theorem to measure theoretical averages across all possible questions rather than just observed averages; 2) clustering standard errors when questions are related rather than independent; 3) reducing variance within questions through resampling or using next-token probabilities; 4) analyzing paired differences between models since questions are shared across evaluations, and 5) using power analysis to determine appropriate sample sizes for detecting meaningful differences between models; the authors argue that these statistical approaches will help researchers better determine whether performance differences between models represent genuine capability gaps or are simply due to chance, leading to more precise and reliable model evaluations.