The Consistency Illusion

Multi-agent debate is often judged by whether the agents end up agreeing, but this paper shows that output-level consensus can hide deep disagreement in the reasoning that produced it. The authors abstract agents' reasoning traces and decisions into four states along two axes, reasoning similarity and conclusion agreement, and flag divergent agreement, where agents reach the same answer through very different paths. Across 600 content-moderation items, divergent agreement appeared in 118 cases and separated cleanly from genuine disagreement states with a Cohen's d of 0.80, and routing on these categories beat divergence-only methods at flagging high-disagreement cases.